Explore more California market data: Market Insights · Business and owner connections · Top 25 and small-farm brand reach.

The evidence behind the proposal

Why small farms need another way to reach customers

Small farms need more ways to reach customers. These maps and reports look at where cannabis is grown, where stores are licensed, and what direct shipping could offer. The examples let you try different prices and costs.

Under our proposal, eligible farms and co-ops could ship within California through approved carriers. Product testing, taxes, and age checks would stay in place.

Read our plain-English introduction to the proposal

1. Consumer access

Where local rules limit cannabis stores

California’s cannabis regulator tracks which cities and counties allow cannabis stores and delivery businesses. The figures below focus on areas that do not license either type of business locally.

Retailers from other areas may already deliver to these communities. The map helps show local licensing rules and how far residents are from stores.

California adults living in areas with these local restrictions

40.9% · 11,790,532 of 28,856,913 adults age 21+, based on 2024 Census population estimates.

Report 1 · Observed

The Retail Access Gap

Areas where local rules do not allow cannabis stores or locally licensed delivery businesses.

Local licensing data updated November 1, 2026.

28,856,913
California statewide population age 21+ · 2024 ACS 5-year
11,790,532
adults age 21+ living in these areas
301
of 540 jurisdictions
7.8 mi
average distance to the three nearest stores, weighted by adult population
2,332,957
adults age 21+ in jurisdictions averaging over 10 miles
How population and distances are calculated

The statewide adult population sums all 58 California county estimates from the same Census source used for affected adults. Each jurisdiction is represented by a Census block-group center weighted by the population age 21 and over. When no eligible block-group centroid falls inside a boundary, the calculation uses an interior point. Distances are straight-line miles to the three nearest active storefront-capable licenses.

How far these communities are from cannabis stores

The table below lists the same places and distances.

Select a shaded area to see its name, adult population, and distance from stores.

0–5 miles Over 5–10 miles Over 10–25 miles Over 25 miles

Colors show the average straight-line distance to the three nearest licensed stores from where adults in each area are concentrated. Driving distances will usually be longer. Areas without shading are outside this comparison or have missing map data.

See the places behind the map
The distance shown is the average to the three nearest stores.
City or areaCountyAdults 21+Average miles
Modoc UnincorporatedModoc County4,70085.6
AlturasModoc County1,99283.2
TulelakeSiskiyou County68560.3
LoyaltonSierra County57052.5
RidgecrestKern County19,49447.3
Kern UnincorporatedKern County204,79346.5
DorrisSiskiyou County59946.1
TaftKern County5,49645.8
PortolaPlumas County1,75944.5
MaricopaKern County72242.8
BakersfieldKern County272,68341.1
Mariposa UnincorporatedMariposa County13,93241.1
Sierra UnincorporatedSierra County1,56640.4
SusanvilleLassen County11,52736.8
Plumas UnincorporatedPlumas County13,97835.5
ShafterKern County12,83631.6
TehachapiKern County9,29130.5
Twentynine PalmsSan Bernardino County17,49329.4
Fort JonesSiskiyou County38129.4
EtnaSiskiyou County54428.4
WascoKern County17,77927.7
MontagueSiskiyou County1,03525.0
AvenalKings County9,81424.3
CalipatriaImperial County5,22722.8
Big Bear LakeSan Bernardino County3,98122.0
OrovilleButte County14,37421.8
Alpine UnincorporatedAlpine County1,22720.8
Los BanosMerced County29,54320.7
IoneAmador County7,72620.7
Colusa UnincorporatedColusa County7,31720.3
WilliamsColusa County3,50819.8
San JoaquinFresno County2,03119.6
BiggsButte County1,37219.6
Dos PalosMerced County4,10219.1
San ClementeOrange County47,94118.8
DelanoKern County37,00418.5
LincolnPlacer County38,96418.0
SoledadMonterey County18,56218.0
HuronFresno County3,73317.6
Amador CityAmador County15117.6
Amador UnincorporatedAmador County19,26017.1
CorningTehama County5,13317.0
WestmorlandImperial County1,10417.0
OrlandGlenn County5,33916.9
Sutter CreekAmador County2,18116.7
Orange CoveFresno County5,74716.5
JacksonAmador County4,09816.4
GaltSacramento County18,64916.3
AuburnPlacer County10,96516.2
LoomisPlacer County5,40816.2
GridleyButte County4,70816.2
San Bernardino UnincorporatedSan Bernardino County213,15916.1
Placer UnincorporatedPlacer County88,57916.0
Morgan HillSanta Clara County31,90416.0
FillmoreVentura County11,62415.3
ChowchillaMadera County13,51815.1
GonzalesMonterey County5,28815.1
RocklinPlacer County51,43114.8
San Juan CapistranoOrange County26,59614.6
Dana PointOrange County26,15514.5
Siskiyou UnincorporatedSiskiyou County19,23413.8
Glenn UnincorporatedGlenn County9,96113.8
DinubaTulare County15,16313.7
WheatlandYuba County2,67813.6
ReedleyFresno County16,50313.5
St. HelenaNapa County4,14913.1
PlymouthAmador County80913.1
LivermoreAlameda County63,00512.5
BrawleyImperial County17,41912.5
GilroySanta Clara County40,07512.3
KermanFresno County10,73712.1
ParadiseButte County6,04812.1
Yucca ValleySan Bernardino County15,47511.9
BuelltonSanta Barbara County3,78811.8
Butte UnincorporatedButte County51,38511.7
Laguna NiguelOrange County50,45011.6
Yorba LindaOrange County49,95711.6
YucaipaSan Bernardino County37,74611.5
Madera UnincorporatedMadera County52,39811.4
Apple ValleySan Bernardino County51,54811.4
KingsburgFresno County8,87911.4
TehamaTehama County28811.4
RosevillePlacer County114,88110.8
DublinAlameda County51,20610.8
SelmaFresno County16,97710.7
PleasantonAlameda County57,14710.6
Half Moon BaySan Mateo County8,52710.6
CalistogaNapa County4,13710.3
FerndaleHumboldt County1,26410.3
Rancho Santa MargaritaOrange County35,13310.2
BreaOrange County34,97410.2
SangerFresno County17,50510.2
FolsomSacramento County62,23310.1
San RamonContra Costa County61,26210.0
Santa PaulaVentura County21,63110.0
San AnselmoMarin County9,36810.0
NewmanStanislaus County8,07410.0
HoltvilleImperial County3,4539.9
Mission ViejoOrange County70,8339.8
Santa MariaSanta Barbara County69,0719.7
PlacentiaOrange County38,4359.7
MoorparkVentura County26,1349.5
RossMarin County1,7259.5
TrinidadHumboldt County3179.5
CalimesaRiverside County7,9949.4
Laguna BeachOrange County18,7839.3
Los Altos HillsSanta Clara County6,5689.3
Live OakSutter County6,2819.3
Angels CampCalaveras County2,8299.1
LarkspurMarin County10,1288.9
Westlake VillageLos Angeles County5,9678.9
Los AltosSanta Clara County22,1948.7
FowlerFresno County4,4988.7
TemeculaRiverside County77,4168.5
EscondidoSan Diego County109,8608.4
Simi ValleyVentura County95,4888.3
Lake ForestOrange County64,9818.3
Corte MaderaMarin County7,3048.3
Rancho CucamongaSan Bernardino County129,2908.2
Mill ValleyMarin County10,8188.2
Citrus HeightsSacramento County66,3408.1
Laguna HillsOrange County23,3888.1
Portola ValleySan Mateo County3,4478.1
Aliso ViejoOrange County37,4498.0
La Habra HeightsLos Angeles County4,2807.9
FremontAlameda County171,6447.8
Santa ClaritaLos Angeles County163,4247.8
Ventura UnincorporatedVentura County68,7257.8
Agoura HillsLos Angeles County14,6297.8
Shasta UnincorporatedShasta County51,1917.7
OntarioSan Bernardino County127,3447.5
UplandSan Bernardino County58,4217.4
LodiSan Joaquin County48,2717.3
Rancho CordovaSacramento County58,0357.2
RiponSan Joaquin County11,3747.2
ChinoSan Bernardino County66,8397.0
LivingstonMerced County9,6597.0
Chino HillsSan Bernardino County58,9456.9
NewarkAlameda County36,9146.9
LafayetteContra Costa County18,1336.9
WhittierLos Angeles County62,2556.7
RedlandsSan Bernardino County52,2686.7
AndersonShasta County8,0336.7
TiburonMarin County6,9916.7
Villa ParkOrange County4,3686.6
FortunaHumboldt County9,2336.5
ClaytonContra Costa County7,7856.5
FullertonOrange County102,1736.2
Palo AltoSanta Clara County50,4426.2
BrentwoodContra Costa County45,4506.1
MoragaContra Costa County11,1526.1
Tuolumne UnincorporatedTuolumne County39,6216.0
VisaliaTulare County97,1275.8
EscalonSan Joaquin County5,3555.7
BradburyLos Angeles County6545.7
CamarilloVentura County52,9235.6
BelvedereMarin County1,7315.5
PalmdaleLos Angeles County107,9285.4
Los GatosSanta Clara County24,2325.4
Monte SerenoSanta Clara County2,7325.4
AnaheimOrange County250,5385.3
OrangeOrange County102,5115.3
San Mateo UnincorporatedSan Mateo County45,9915.3
PowaySan Diego County35,6105.3
Kings UnincorporatedKings County20,3745.3
HillsboroughSan Mateo County7,7965.3
SunnyvaleSanta Clara County120,5525.2
VictorvilleSan Bernardino County89,3625.2
DuarteLos Angeles County17,6425.2
Palos Verdes EstatesLos Angeles County9,4815.2
SausalitoMarin County6,5645.2
Del MarSan Diego County3,3325.2
BeaumontRiverside County37,2655.1
East Palo AltoSan Mateo County21,4765.1
Blue LakeHumboldt County8615.1
Elk GroveSacramento County126,4115.0
HighlandSan Bernardino County38,2225.0
La MiradaLos Angeles County35,3625.0
Santa Fe SpringsLos Angeles County14,1545.0
WindsorSonoma County19,0754.9
EastvaleRiverside County47,4964.8
Yuba UnincorporatedYuba County46,1364.8
Napa UnincorporatedNapa County16,7754.8
La Cañada FlintridgeLos Angeles County13,8614.8
MilpitasSanta Clara County60,1954.7
MonroviaLos Angeles County28,4094.7
Huntington BeachOrange County153,8104.6
ClovisFresno County84,0304.6
CupertinoSanta Clara County43,3494.6
SaratogaSanta Clara County23,9274.6
WoodsideSan Mateo County3,8924.6
ClaremontLos Angeles County25,6774.5
MenifeeRiverside County78,8864.4
Orange UnincorporatedOrange County93,7824.3
RialtoSan Bernardino County70,6424.3
Pico RiveraLos Angeles County44,7404.3
Hermosa BeachLos Angeles County14,9984.3
IrvineOrange County220,3594.2
San MateoSan Mateo County79,6484.2
MontclairSan Bernardino County26,8834.2
OrindaContra Costa County14,1874.2
Scotts ValleySanta Cruz County9,1764.2
San GabrielLos Angeles County30,3024.1
Solana BeachSan Diego County10,0014.1
Diamond BarLos Angeles County41,4134.0
La VerneLos Angeles County23,1154.0
HerculesContra Costa County20,4214.0
Sacramento UnincorporatedSacramento County440,4243.9
Sierra MadreLos Angeles County8,6913.9
ExeterTulare County6,7943.9
OakleyContra Costa County32,2163.8
WalnutLos Angeles County21,3283.8
MillbraeSan Mateo County17,6863.8
Sutter UnincorporatedSutter County14,5283.8
Rancho Palos VerdesLos Angeles County30,6003.7
La PuenteLos Angeles County27,9073.7
WestminsterOrange County67,7913.6
HughsonStanislaus County5,4223.6
MurrietaRiverside County76,9703.5
Buena ParkOrange County60,2613.5
San DimasLos Angeles County25,4733.5
Menlo ParkSan Mateo County25,0253.5
NorcoRiverside County19,1683.5
DowneyLos Angeles County82,5003.3
ArcadiaLos Angeles County41,6373.3
RosemeadLos Angeles County40,1433.3
Manhattan BeachLos Angeles County24,8273.3
IndustryLos Angeles County1703.3
GlendoraLos Angeles County37,3323.2
AzusaLos Angeles County35,0343.2
Foster CitySan Mateo County24,9573.2
CalabasasLos Angeles County16,8323.2
IrwindaleLos Angeles County9883.2
Canyon LakeRiverside County8,3133.1
Fresno UnincorporatedFresno County111,4303.0
West CovinaLos Angeles County81,5863.0
Seal BeachOrange County21,1583.0
CoronadoSan Diego County14,2433.0
Pismo BeachSan Luis Obispo County6,9893.0
Rolling Hills EstatesLos Angeles County5,9713.0
Garden GroveOrange County127,4092.9
CarsonLos Angeles County70,3412.9
San MarcosSan Diego County65,2542.9
Merced UnincorporatedMerced County60,4742.8
CampbellSanta Clara County32,7922.8
Temple CityLos Angeles County26,8562.8
El SegundoLos Angeles County12,7932.7
La PalmaOrange County11,6082.7
Santa ClaraSanta Clara County101,6372.6
Yuba CitySutter County48,5602.6
Monterey ParkLos Angeles County47,2012.6
CypressOrange County36,6062.6
San BrunoSan Mateo County33,2262.6
BurbankLos Angeles County81,0272.5
NorwalkLos Angeles County73,3892.5
Rancho MirageRiverside County15,7672.5
PinoleContra Costa County15,2192.5
GlendaleLos Angeles County148,7922.4
El CajonSan Diego County72,9222.4
Newport BeachOrange County67,8212.4
Loma LindaSan Bernardino County19,6422.4
Pacific GroveMonterey County12,2332.4
Los AlamitosOrange County8,6152.4
AthertonSan Mateo County5,0362.4
TorranceLos Angeles County108,0972.3
ComptonLos Angeles County62,4262.3
South PasadenaLos Angeles County19,2842.3
ColtonSan Bernardino County38,2642.2
San MarinoLos Angeles County9,0642.2
Indian WellsRiverside County4,4032.2
Hidden HillsLos Angeles County1,5512.2
TustinOrange County58,0382.1
Rohnert ParkSonoma County33,2982.1
Arroyo GrandeSan Luis Obispo County14,0332.0
Carmel-by-the-SeaMonterey County3,0462.0
AlhambraLos Angeles County65,1011.9
Santa Clara UnincorporatedSanta Clara County61,4671.9
Tehama UnincorporatedTehama County32,0531.9
Grand TerraceSan Bernardino County9,7971.9
ColmaSan Mateo County1,2131.9
Fountain ValleyOrange County43,4731.8
LawndaleLos Angeles County22,4111.8
Hawaiian GardensLos Angeles County9,5971.8
InglewoodLos Angeles County80,0391.7
Solano UnincorporatedSolano County14,2941.7
LakewoodLos Angeles County60,3711.6
GardenaLos Angeles County44,8681.6
AlbanyAlameda County14,1551.5
San CarlosSan Mateo County21,8481.4
South GateLos Angeles County66,3921.3
ParamountLos Angeles County36,1541.3
San FernandoLos Angeles County17,5131.2
CerritosLos Angeles County37,1531.1
Beverly HillsLos Angeles County25,7181.1
San PabloContra Costa County22,0551.0
Signal HillLos Angeles County9,0641.0
PiedmontAlameda County7,5011.0
VernonLos Angeles County2121.0
BellLos Angeles County22,4700.8
LomitaLos Angeles County14,8460.8
Los Angeles UnincorporatedLos Angeles County726,3960.2

2. Where farms and stores are

Farms and stores are often in different places

The charts compare how much licensed growing space is in rural areas with how many retail licenses are there. Each bar shows rural and urban shares on the same scale.

Shipping could help connect farms in growing regions with customers elsewhere in California. These charts show where licenses are located; the retail-menu report below looks at products offered for sale.

Report 5 · Observed

Where Farms and Retail Businesses Are Located

Compares rural and urban locations using the Census Bureau’s 2020 boundaries. We use license coordinates where available, and a county-based estimate for records without a usable location.

Cultivation capacity77,006,000 sq. ft. classified
Retail licenses1,592 classified
Cultivation-capacity square feet and retail licenses, each normalized to its own classified total
License categoryRuralUrbanTotal classified
Cultivation capacity61,850,720 sq. ft. (80.3%)15,155,280 sq. ft. (19.7%)77,006,000 sq. ft.
Retail112 (7.0%)1,480 (93.0%)1,592
How locations and growing area are estimated

Cultivation capacity sums the active cultivation square footage assigned to cultivation licenses and microbusinesses with cultivation activity. Retail includes storefront retailers, non-storefront delivery retailers, and microbusinesses with retail activity. The analysis first uses a premise point inside the California validation envelope. When that point is missing or invalid, it falls back to the population-weighted center of the license’s DCC county region, calculated from current Census block-group populations and centroids, and classifies that proxy against the current promoted Census Urban Area source. The regional fallback contributes 474 cultivation licenses representing 14,332,100 sq. ft. and 199 retail licenses; across those records, 353 have no address and 198 are non-storefront delivery retailers. The county proxy does not identify a premise or delivery service area and can differ from the license’s actual rural or urban location within a mixed county. The split still excludes 0 cultivation licenses (0.0% of active cultivation licenses), representing 0 sq. ft. (0.0% of active cultivation capacity), and 0 retail licenses (0.0%) that lack both a usable premise point and a usable county proxy, or when a required current Census release is unavailable. ZIP codes and address text do not enter the classification.

3. Small-farm size

A closer look at small farms

We group growing licenses under the same ownership and compare their estimated licensed growing area. The charts show the share held by small, medium, and large operations.

Share of estimated licensed growing area, by business size
10,000 sq. ft. or less12.9%

1256 operator groups · 9,923,500 sq. ft. estimated licensed growing area

Over 10,000 sq. ft. through one acre23.1%

610 operator groups · 17,756,740 sq. ft. estimated licensed growing area

Over one acre64.1%

223 operator groups · 49,325,760 sq. ft. estimated licensed growing area

These estimates use license types and recorded ownership links. Eligibility under the proposal would depend on approved growing area, who controls the business, and the rules for each license type.

4. What an order could look like

What could a farm keep from a direct sale?

Our article uses an example of $6 wholesale for a packaged eighth and $25 paid by the customer, including tax. Try those prices below, then add shipping and selling costs to compare the two options.

Use a shipping quote and your own selling costs. To try the calculator, the example button adds $10 for shipping and $8 for other costs.

Enter shipping and other selling costs to see the comparison.

What is left from the order before production costs and overhead
ItemExample amount
What the customer pays, including tax—
Less excise and sales tax—
Less shipping and other selling costs—
What is left from selling direct—
Wholesale payment for the same products—
Difference between the two options—

This compares the same finished packaged goods sold two ways. Growing, testing, processing, packaging, and general business expenses still come out of these amounts. Include any extra work, returns, and co-op payments when you enter selling costs.

For this example, sales tax applies to the product value plus excise tax. A tax-inclusive price is divided by (1 + excise rate) × (1 + combined sales-tax rate). Shipping is assumed to be paid by the seller from that price; separately charged freight and local cannabis business taxes are outside this example. Actual tax treatment and medical exemptions require the applicable transaction rules.

Six reports behind the proposal

Reports 1 and 5 appear above. Open the reports below to explore small-farm products on menus, licensing trends, and possible sales and tax outcomes.

Report 2: Small-farm products on retail menus
Report 2 · Retail menu sample

Small-Farm Products on Retail Shelves

Higher Origins menu analysis completed September 18, 2026.

The full menus used in this report were collected from August 8, 2026 through September 18, 2026.

0.16%
share of sampled listings from small-farm brands
997,393
available product listings reviewed
1,605
listings matched to small-farm brands
924
retail locations sampled

We match menu listings to our small-farm brand classifications. Counts reflect the stores and collection dates shown above.

Report 6: Small-farm licensing trends
Report 6 · License records

Small-Farm Licenses That Are No Longer Active

Looks at growing licenses in business groups with no active cultivation license and an estimated growing area of 10,000 square feet or less. An inactive license does not always mean the farm has closed.

How Small Farms Compare with All Cultivation Sizes

For each size category, we compare business groups with no active growing license against all groups in that category. Licenses under shared ownership count as one group.

Cultivation operator groups without active licenses by affiliated capacity, with all operator groups as the denominator
Size categoryAll business groupsGroups without an active growing licenseRate
All cultivation sizes5,8033,08153.1%
Small (≤ 10,000 sq. ft.)3,8132,10255.1%
Larger (> 10,000 sq. ft.)1,99097949.2%

Small groups account for 68.2% of all cultivation groups with no active license, compared with 65.7% of all cultivation groups in the snapshot.

Difference between the small- and larger-business rates: +5.9 percentage points.

How business groups are counted

Each group is counted once and remains active if any affiliated cultivation license is active, so retiring or replacing a license within an active group does not count as a group exit. The comparison uses the same stored name-and-owners grouping and sum of active and inactive license-type capacity proxies as the small-license screen below; missing capacity is treated as zero. These categories describe the current records, not farm size at the time of an exit. Non-active statuses can include temporary restrictions and internal visibility states, and are not proof of permanent closure. Comparison snapshot updated through November 6, 2026.

2,257
small-farm licenses outside active status
2,102
business groups represented
15,271,500
estimated growing area, sq. ft.
0
nonpublic licenses included
81.4%
of these inactive small licenses are expired

The expired percentage uses the inactive small-farm licenses listed in this report.

Licenses left out because the business is still growing
56
2.4%

inactive licenses are left out because the same business group still has an active growing license.

Those exclusions occur across 53 operator groups, or 2.5% of the 2,155 affiliated groups screened.

How long the licenses were held before becoming inactive
Time heldLicensesShare
Less than 1 year50.2%
1 to under 2 years49421.9%
2 to under 5 years1,23854.9%
5 years or more52023.0%
Unknown or inconsistent dates00.0%
Current statusLicensesNonpublicOperator groupsCapacity proxyShare
Expired1,83701,72012,370,000 sq. ft.81.4%
Surrendered29202791,888,500 sq. ft.12.9%
Limited operations43042320,000 sq. ft.1.9%
Revoked55054408,000 sq. ft.2.4%
Canceled25025245,000 sq. ft.1.1%
Suspended20215,000 sq. ft.0.1%

This is a current-status and capacity screen of nondeleted DCC cultivation licenses and microbusiness licenses with cultivation activity. The initial pool contains 2,313 cultivation records outside active status across 2,155 affiliated owner groups. A record is counted as potentially qualifying only when every cultivation license in its affiliated group is outside active status. This excludes inactive licenses that may have been converted or replaced by another active cultivation license in the same group. Records omitted from Higher Origins public listings and licenses marked nonpublic remain included in the aggregate totals. Higher Origins internal visibility classifications are omitted from the license-status table because they are not licensing-agency statuses. The status rows show the licensing statuses present after the active-affiliation exclusion, including limited operations where applicable, and the Nonpublic column shows the visibility subset within each row. Records are grouped by the stored legal name, falling back to the license name, together with the stored owners array. The 10,000-square-foot test sums the license-type cultivation-capacity proxy across all included active and inactive cultivation records in each affiliated group. Each license is counted once. The potentially qualifying operator count deduplicates affiliated groups, while operator counts in individual status rows may overlap and should not be added together. License tenure runs from the stored issue date to the stored status date, falling back to expiration date when the status date is absent, and its breakdown includes only the potentially qualifying licenses after the active-affiliation exclusion. The buckets use calendar intervals of 1, 2, and 5 years; a missing end date or an end date before issuance is reported as unknown or inconsistent. Capacity is a regulatory license-type proxy, not planted, harvested, or operational canopy. The screen does not establish that a license can be renewed or restored, that ownership and control are fully resolved, or that the operator satisfies good-standing, local-approval, compliance, farm-origin product, and other proposed endorsement requirements. Licensing statuses such as expired, surrendered, revoked, canceled, suspended, and limited operations have different meanings and do not all imply permanent closure. Data reflect the Higher Origins license snapshot as updated through November 6, 2026 and can be checked against the DCC license search.

Reports 3 and 4: Explore sales capacity and tax scenarios

These examples explore what direct sales might look like using county spending figures and estimates of farm production. Some sales could come from new legal-market customers; others could shift from existing stores.

Report 3 · Scenario

Possible Sales and Tax Revenue

Uses Q2 2026 county sales data to estimate a year of spending by adults in areas with local retail restrictions.

$1.20B
estimated annual spending in these areas
$299M
excise and sales tax in this example
$17.3M
1.25% local component of sales tax
99.2%
share of the affected adult population included

These are example sales and tax amounts. Some purchases may already happen at licensed stores, so the total tax shown is not all new revenue. Sales tax includes excise tax in its base; local cannabis business taxes are excluded.

Report 4 · Scenario

What Small-Farm Direct Sales Could Look Like

Explores an example where the farms in our small-farm count sell 20% of their estimated yearly production directly to customers. Production and price estimates come from state market data.

$388M
example annual farm direct sales
$5.6M
1.25% local sales-tax component in this example
$58.1M
state excise tax in this example
9,923,500
estimated licensed growing area, sq. ft.
How this example is calculated

The canopy proxy assigns each license type its regulatory upper bound; it is not reported planted area. The scenario uses 0.066323 lb. per sq. ft. per year at full capacity and $2944.46 per packaged-flower-equivalent pound. This statewide annual yield blends cultivation types; it does not separately model outdoor, mixed-light, and indoor harvest schedules. Taxes shown do not subtract taxes displaced from existing legal retail sales, so they do not estimate additional government revenue. Sales are not a forecast of farmer receipts.

How much spending would be new to the legal market?

Enter your estimate of how much spending would be new to the legal market. The calculator separates those sales from purchases that would otherwise happen at licensed stores.

Annual production = farms × average canopy × dry-flower yield per run × runs per year. Outdoor uses 1 run, mixed light 3, and indoor 4. These run counts are scenario assumptions.

Enter a per-run yield for every cultivation type with participating farms. Yields start blank because the DCC annual average is not a per-run estimate. Count each farm once, using groups with one cultivation method; this option does not split farms with multiple methods. The initial farm count and canopy are illustrative. This assumes all modeled canopy completes every run and all modeled flower is saleable.

The initial $2,944.46/lb value uses the DCC packaged-flower retail benchmark; 20% sold DTC is illustrative. Adjust both to match your scenario. This harvest option is separate from Report 4's statewide annual-yield benchmark.

Estimate the share coming from customers who would otherwise buy outside the legal market. The rest is treated as spending moved from licensed stores. Enter your own estimate to see the results.

Enter your figures to see an estimate. For the harvest option, add at least one farm and a yield for each growing method you use.

Modeled Annual Harvest

Estimated annual direct sales
Sales added to the legal market
Sales moved from licensed stores

Excise tax on direct sales
Sales tax on direct sales
Total tax on direct sales
Less tax from sales moved out of stores
Estimated extra annual tax revenue

This compares taxes on the same spending at the same tax rates. If none of the direct sales add spending to the legal market, the estimated extra tax is $0. Different prices or tax rates would change the result. Sales tax includes excise tax; local cannabis business taxes are not included.

Where the numbers come from

We use public license records, local licensing rules, Census population estimates, retailer menus, and tax data to understand the challenges facing small farms and their customers.

If the proposal moves forward, annual reports and an independent review would track prices, shipping costs, farm earnings, worker outcomes, and effects on existing retailers. That would show how the program works in practice.

Data sources and definitions
  • DCC retail-access records: the latest imported local storefront and delivery licensing policies. Dates and missing coverage are separate from service availability.
  • Census ACS population estimates and 2020 Census Urban Areas: population age 21+ and rural/urban classification. A statewide population requires all 58 counties.
  • DCC license records: active license locations, assigned cultivation-capacity proxies, affiliation screens, and licensing statuses. These do not independently establish actual control, authorized mature canopy, sales, or business closures.
  • Higher Origins complete-menu snapshots: available product listings are matched against our small-farm brand classifications. Report 2 identifies the retail locations and collection dates represented by the sample.
  • CDTFA county taxable sales and the DCC market outlook: inputs for optional scenarios. Taxable sales include other reportable goods; production capacity is not observed harvest.

Local sales-tax allocation follows sourcing rules and is not automatically retained by the farm’s county. The optional models exclude local cannabis business taxes and use adjustable tax assumptions. Their output is not tax advice or a budget for program administration.

The data are snapshots. Straight-line distance understates road travel and does not measure delivery availability, hours, prices, stock, or service quality. Neither association networks nor license counts prove that vertical integration caused a small farm’s lack of shelf access.

Help small farms reach more customers

Read how the proposal would work for farms, co-ops, carriers, and customers, or add your support.

Research Lead Higher Origins Policy Team
Legal Status Proposal (Not Enacted)
Data Version 2026.09.A
Last Updated October 29, 2026

Policy research and drafting by Higher Origins. This proposal has not yet been enacted and does not constitute legal advice. Data is aggregated from DCC license records and Higher Origins proprietary research.

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